"Political science tells us that campaigns are about driving elections towards or away from a natural outcome. When modelers make models, they are trying to predict a ‘natural’ endpoint. There is always the possibility of biasing your actual calculation. Adding in assumptions like fundamentals could be right and could be wrong, but what they represent is basically a hypothesis about where the race ought to be. Making a model like that is a good political science experiment, but we should be clear that we are adding assumptions on top of the polls."Dr Sam Wang
"That model is wrong(Dr Wang's) — not necessarily because it shows Democrats ahead (ours barely shows any Republican advantage), but because it substantially underestimates the uncertainty associated with polling averages and thereby overestimates the win probabilities for candidates with small leads in the polls. This is because instead of estimating the uncertainty empirically — that is, by looking at how accurate polls or polling averages have been in the past — Wang makes several assumptions about how polls behave that don’t check out against the data." Nate Silver
"Political science is Not a science"former President Nixon
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